How to find a probability with the normal distribution
To find a probability with the normal distribution, convert the variable to a standard score and evaluate the cumulative distribution function. This method applies whenever a continuous random variable is known or assumed to follow a normal distribution .
The setup
Identify the population mean , the population standard deviation , and the target boundary values . Define the required probability bound, choosing among a left-tail , a right-tail , or an interval .
The steps
- Calculate the z-score for each boundary value using .
- Look up the calculated z-score in a standard normal (Z) table or use a cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculator to find the left-tail probability .
- Adjust the cumulative area for your specific bound: use for right-tail probabilities, or for intervals.
Checking the result
Verify that the final probability is strictly between 0 and 1. Confirm that target values of close to the mean yield cumulative left-tail probabilities near 0.5, and values far above the mean yield cumulative probabilities near 1.
Common errors
A frequent error is using the variance instead of the standard deviation in the denominator of the z-score formula. Another standard mistake is failing to subtract the table value from 1 when evaluating a right-tail ('greater than') probability.
Worked example
The heights of a population are normally distributed with cm and cm. Find the probability that a randomly selected person is between 165 cm and 180 cm tall.
Let . We need to find .
Step 1: Calculate z-scores for both boundaries.
Step 2: Look up cumulative probabilities in the Z-table.
Step 3: Subtract the smaller area from the larger area to find the interval probability.
The probability is 0.5328.
FAQ
Run your own problem
References: OpenStax Introductory Statistics, Chapter 6: The Normal Distribution · Khan Academy, Normal Distribution Unit
See also